Jeff Sagarin'stm Major League Baseball Team Ratings
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All Contents Copyright © 2000 Jeff Sagarintm. All Rights
Reserved.
Major League Baseball 2000 Ratings thru results of SUNDAY, AUGUST 27
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) LEAGUE AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom)
(3) teams listed by LEAGUE
(listed in order within divisions)
NOTE: until there's been INTERLEAGUE games, the ratings of the teams
from the four different leagues are NOT directly comparable.
Until then, there's no particular significance to the fact
that one league may have a higher average rating than the other.
There have now been INTERLEAGUE games.
The SCHEDULE ratings represent the average schedule difficulty faced
by each team in the games that it's played so far. The schedule
difficulty of a given game takes into account the rating of the
opponent and the location of the game.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3.58 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 55.21 would be
favored by 5.62 rating points over a VISITING team with a rating of
53.27 Or a VISITING team with a rating of 60.41 would be favored by
2.20 rating points over a HOME team having a rating of 54.63
Then, consult the baseball probability chart to determine the favored
team's chance of winning the game.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3.58 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Rating Expected Odds to 1
Difference Probability
.00 .5000 1.0000
1.00 .5107 1.0435
2.00 .5213 1.0890
3.00 .5319 1.1364
4.00 .5425 1.1859
5.00 .5531 1.2376
6.00 .5636 1.2915
7.00 .5741 1.3478
8.00 .5845 1.4066
9.00 .5948 1.4681
Rating Expected Odds to 1
Difference Probability
10.00 .6051 1.5322
11.00 .6153 1.5992
12.00 .6253 1.6691
13.00 .6353 1.7422
14.00 .6452 1.8185
15.00 .6550 1.8983
16.00 .6646 1.9817
17.00 .6741 2.0688
18.00 .6835 2.1599
19.00 .6928 2.2552
Rating Expected Odds to 1
Difference Probability
20.00 .7019 2.3547
21.00 .7109 2.4589
22.00 .7197 2.5678
23.00 .7284 2.6817
24.00 .7369 2.8009
25.00 .7453 2.9256
26.00 .7535 3.0561
27.00 .7615 3.1927
28.00 .7694 3.3358
29.00 .7771 3.4855
Rating Expected Odds to 1
Difference Probability
30.00 .7846 3.6424
31.00 .7920 3.8067
32.00 .7992 3.9789
33.00 .8062 4.1593
34.00 .8130 4.3484
35.00 .8197 4.5466
36.00 .8262 4.7544
37.00 .8326 4.9724
38.00 .8387 5.2010
39.00 .8447 5.4409
Rating Expected Odds to 1
Difference Probability
40.00 .8506 5.6927
41.00 .8563 5.9569
42.00 .8618 6.2343
43.00 .8671 6.5256
44.00 .8723 6.8316
45.00 .8773 7.1530
46.00 .8822 7.4908
47.00 .8870 7.8458
48.00 .8915 8.2189
49.00 .8960 8.6113
Rating Expected Odds to 1
Difference Probability
50.00 .9002 9.0240
51.00 .9044 9.4581
52.00 .9084 9.9148
53.00 .9122 10.3955
54.00 .9160 10.9014
55.00 .9196 11.4341
56.00 .9230 11.9951
57.00 .9264 12.5860
58.00 .9296 13.2085
59.00 .9327 13.8644
Rating Expected Odds to 1
Difference Probability
60.00 .9357 14.5557
61.00 .9386 15.2845
62.00 .9414 16.0528
63.00 .9440 16.8631
64.00 .9466 17.7178
65.00 .9490 18.6194
66.00 .9514 19.5708
67.00 .9536 20.5749
68.00 .9558 21.6346
69.00 .9579 22.7534
Rating Expected Odds to 1
Difference Probability
70.00 .9599 23.9348
71.00 .9618 25.1823
72.00 .9636 26.4999
73.00 .9654 27.8917
74.00 .9671 29.3622
75.00 .9687 30.9160
76.00 .9702 32.5580
77.00 .9717 34.2934
78.00 .9731 36.1277
79.00 .9744 38.0668
Rating Expected Odds to 1
Difference Probability
80.00 .9757 40.1169
81.00 .9769 42.2845
82.00 .9781 44.5765
83.00 .9792 47.0002
84.00 .9802 49.5634
85.00 .9812 52.2743
86.00 .9822 55.1415
87.00 .9831 58.1740
88.00 .9840 61.3817
89.00 .9848 64.7746
Rating Expected Odds to 1
Difference Probability
90.00 .9856 68.3634
91.00 .9863 72.1595
92.00 .9870 76.1749
93.00 .9877 80.4220
94.00 .9884 84.9143
95.00 .9890 89.6655
96.00 .9895 94.6905
97.00 .9901 100.0047
98.00 .9906 105.6244
99.00 .9911 111.5667
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 10 and top 15 respectively.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Major League Baseball 2000 thru games of Sunday, August 27
HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.14 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK)|VS top 10| VS top 15| RUNS |SRATIO
1 Chicago White Sox A = 60.04 77 53 51.09( 14)| 32 20 | 44 28 | 796 681| 1.169
2 New York Yankees A = 58.12 72 55 51.64( 8)| 26 26 | 36 40 | 726 621| 1.169
3 Atlanta Braves N = 57.75 78 52 48.03( 29)| 18 14 | 27 20 | 649 588| 1.104
4 New York Mets N = 57.52 77 53 48.55( 24)| 15 15 | 29 22 | 664 603| 1.101
5 Seattle Mariners A = 56.24 71 59 51.82( 5)| 20 26 | 38 40 | 740 650| 1.138
6 San Francisco Giants N = 55.68 73 55 48.85( 19)| 17 18 | 24 28 | 738 606| 1.218
7 Boston Red Sox A = 55.15 68 59 51.74( 7)| 22 23 | 35 39 | 636 586| 1.085
8 Oakland Athletics A = 54.60 68 61 52.00( 2)| 24 26 | 41 40 | 740 714| 1.036
9 Cleveland Indians A = 54.46 67 59 51.40( 10)| 22 22 | 39 36 | 721 661| 1.091
10 St. Louis Cardinals N = 54.20 73 57 48.25( 26)| 11 17 | 22 27 | 720 637| 1.130
Major League Baseball 2000 thru games of Sunday, August 27
HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.14 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK)|VS top 10| VS top 15| RUNS |SRATIO
11 Toronto Blue Jays A = 53.45 68 62 51.22( 12)| 24 29 | 35 36 | 724 745| .972
12 Anaheim Angels A = 53.30 67 63 51.83( 4)| 27 30 | 39 42 | 691 684| 1.010
13 Arizona Diamondbacks N = 52.33 71 58 47.47( 30)| 13 19 | 20 22 | 643 595| 1.081
14 Los Angeles Dodgers N = 51.38 68 62 49.14( 17)| 17 25 | 21 34 | 675 618| 1.092
15 Detroit Tigers A = 50.80 64 65 51.17( 13)| 32 25 | 38 34 | 649 661| .982
16 Colorado Rockies N = 49.65 66 64 48.90( 18)| 19 23 | 24 36 | 797 722| 1.104
17 Kansas City Royals A = 47.91 60 70 51.61( 9)| 26 32 | 38 48 | 708 764| .927
18 Cincinnati Reds N = 47.73 64 65 48.10( 28)| 15 19 | 25 28 | 637 628| 1.014
19 San Diego Padres N = 47.70 63 67 49.17( 16)| 12 26 | 20 41 | 620 643| .964
20 Florida Marlins N = 47.58 63 66 48.71( 21)| 18 23 | 24 32 | 588 639| .920
Major League Baseball 2000 thru games of Sunday, August 27
HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.14 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK)|VS top 10| VS top 15| RUNS |SRATIO
21 Texas Rangers A = 47.47 58 71 52.29( 1)| 22 33 | 40 50 | 687 743| .925
22 Baltimore Orioles A = 47.37 59 71 51.82( 6)| 20 35 | 33 47 | 647 762| .849
23 Minnesota Twins A = 46.47 59 72 51.25( 11)| 24 31 | 37 44 | 617 700| .881
24 Tampa Bay Devil Rays A = 45.65 56 73 52.00( 3)| 16 33 | 29 47 | 618 683| .905
25 Milwaukee Brewers N = 42.29 56 73 48.63( 22)| 10 29 | 19 35 | 574 668| .859
26 Chicago Cubs N = 42.16 56 73 48.55( 23)| 15 19 | 23 32 | 628 692| .908
27 Philadelphia Phillies N = 42.13 55 74 49.27( 15)| 17 23 | 24 34 | 576 678| .850
28 Montreal Expos N = 40.97 54 73 48.24( 27)| 10 19 | 19 30 | 595 703| .846
29 Houston Astros N = 40.25 54 76 48.45( 25)| 10 21 | 15 35 | 724 764| .948
30 Pittsburgh Pirates N = 39.66 52 76 48.78( 20)| 9 23 | 15 35 | 606 695| .872
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
League Rankings
There are two group ratings, the "central mean" and the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean")
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is in a sense the continuous version of the discrete "tri-mean".
LEAGUE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
1 PACIFIC = 53.25 53.03 ( 1) 7
2 ATLANTIC = 50.28 50.50 ( 2) 7
3 NORTHERN = 48.48 48.39 ( 4) 8
4 CENTRAL = 48.14 48.52 ( 3) 8
LEAGUE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
1 PACIFIC = 53.25 53.03 ( 1) 7
4 CENTRAL = 48.14 48.52 ( 3) 8
3 NORTHERN = 48.48 48.39 ( 4) 8
2 ATLANTIC = 50.28 50.50 ( 2) 7
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
By League
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
1 PACIFIC = 53.25 53.03 ( 1) TEAMS= 7
Major League Baseball 2000 thru games of Sunday, August 27
HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.14 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK)|VS top 10| VS top 15| RUNS |SRATIO
5 Seattle Mariners A = 56.24 71 59 51.82( 5)| 20 26 | 38 40 | 740 650| 1.138
6 San Francisco Giants N = 55.68 73 55 48.85( 19)| 17 18 | 24 28 | 738 606| 1.218
8 Oakland Athletics A = 54.60 68 61 52.00( 2)| 24 26 | 41 40 | 740 714| 1.036
12 Anaheim Angels A = 53.30 67 63 51.83( 4)| 27 30 | 39 42 | 691 684| 1.010
13 Arizona Diamondbacks N = 52.33 71 58 47.47( 30)| 13 19 | 20 22 | 643 595| 1.081
14 Los Angeles Dodgers N = 51.38 68 62 49.14( 17)| 17 25 | 21 34 | 675 618| 1.092
19 San Diego Padres N = 47.70 63 67 49.17( 16)| 12 26 | 20 41 | 620 643| .964
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
4 CENTRAL = 48.14 48.52 ( 3) TEAMS= 8
Major League Baseball 2000 thru games of Sunday, August 27
HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.14 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK)|VS top 10| VS top 15| RUNS |SRATIO
1 Chicago White Sox A = 60.04 77 53 51.09( 14)| 32 20 | 44 28 | 796 681| 1.169
10 St. Louis Cardinals N = 54.20 73 57 48.25( 26)| 11 17 | 22 27 | 720 637| 1.130
16 Colorado Rockies N = 49.65 66 64 48.90( 18)| 19 23 | 24 36 | 797 722| 1.104
17 Kansas City Royals A = 47.91 60 70 51.61( 9)| 26 32 | 38 48 | 708 764| .927
21 Texas Rangers A = 47.47 58 71 52.29( 1)| 22 33 | 40 50 | 687 743| .925
23 Minnesota Twins A = 46.47 59 72 51.25( 11)| 24 31 | 37 44 | 617 700| .881
26 Chicago Cubs N = 42.16 56 73 48.55( 23)| 15 19 | 23 32 | 628 692| .908
29 Houston Astros N = 40.25 54 76 48.45( 25)| 10 21 | 15 35 | 724 764| .948
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
3 NORTHERN = 48.48 48.39 ( 4) TEAMS= 8
Major League Baseball 2000 thru games of Sunday, August 27
HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.14 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK)|VS top 10| VS top 15| RUNS |SRATIO
3 Atlanta Braves N = 57.75 78 52 48.03( 29)| 18 14 | 27 20 | 649 588| 1.104
9 Cleveland Indians A = 54.46 67 59 51.40( 10)| 22 22 | 39 36 | 721 661| 1.091
11 Toronto Blue Jays A = 53.45 68 62 51.22( 12)| 24 29 | 35 36 | 724 745| .972
15 Detroit Tigers A = 50.80 64 65 51.17( 13)| 32 25 | 38 34 | 649 661| .982
18 Cincinnati Reds N = 47.73 64 65 48.10( 28)| 15 19 | 25 28 | 637 628| 1.014
25 Milwaukee Brewers N = 42.29 56 73 48.63( 22)| 10 29 | 19 35 | 574 668| .859
28 Montreal Expos N = 40.97 54 73 48.24( 27)| 10 19 | 19 30 | 595 703| .846
30 Pittsburgh Pirates N = 39.66 52 76 48.78( 20)| 9 23 | 15 35 | 606 695| .872
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
2 ATLANTIC = 50.28 50.50 ( 2) TEAMS= 7
Major League Baseball 2000 thru games of Sunday, August 27
HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.14 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK)|VS top 10| VS top 15| RUNS |SRATIO
2 New York Yankees A = 58.12 72 55 51.64( 8)| 26 26 | 36 40 | 726 621| 1.169
4 New York Mets N = 57.52 77 53 48.55( 24)| 15 15 | 29 22 | 664 603| 1.101
7 Boston Red Sox A = 55.15 68 59 51.74( 7)| 22 23 | 35 39 | 636 586| 1.085
20 Florida Marlins N = 47.58 63 66 48.71( 21)| 18 23 | 24 32 | 588 639| .920
22 Baltimore Orioles A = 47.37 59 71 51.82( 6)| 20 35 | 33 47 | 647 762| .849
24 Tampa Bay Devil Rays A = 45.65 56 73 52.00( 3)| 16 33 | 29 47 | 618 683| .905
27 Philadelphia Phillies N = 42.13 55 74 49.27( 15)| 17 23 | 24 34 | 576 678| .850
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
end of file