United States Naval Observatory
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NBA 2009-2010 ratings through results of 2009 NOVEMBER 6 FRIDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent the average schedule difficulty faced
by each team in the games that it's played so far. The schedule
difficulty of a given game takes into account the rating of the
opponent and the location of the game.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
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In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of
no consequence,which makes it very "politically correct". However it
is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the
PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL,
and is the best single PREDICTOR of future games.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites,
ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NBA 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 6 Friday HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.77 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 1 Boston Celtics = 99.48 6 1 89.57( 17) 2 1 | 3 1 | 98.40 3 | 101.01 1 2 Phoenix Suns = 98.16 5 1 92.67( 3) 2 1 | 2 1 | 101.64 1 | 96.43 5 3 Miami Heat = 97.60 5 1 90.32( 14) 2 1 | 2 1 | 98.73 2 | 96.66 4 4 Denver Nuggets = 97.27 5 1 90.13( 15) 1 1 | 1 1 | 97.19 4 | 97.26 3 5 Orlando Magic = 97.17 5 1 90.42( 13) 1 0 | 4 1 | 96.51 5 | 97.86 2 6 Los Angeles Lakers = 92.95 5 1 88.15( 29) 1 0 | 2 1 | 93.88 7 | 92.03 12 7 Chicago Bulls = 92.93 3 2 94.48( 1) 1 2 | 2 2 | 96.24 6 | 90.44 14 8 Houston Rockets = 92.45 4 2 89.48( 18) 1 2 | 1 2 | 91.11 12 | 93.86 7 9 Portland Trail Blazers = 92.28 3 3 90.46( 11) 1 2 | 1 3 | 90.34 15 | 94.48 6 10 Cleveland Cavaliers = 92.25 4 3 89.36( 19) 0 2 | 0 3 | 91.00 13 | 93.54 8 NBA 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 6 Friday HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.77 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 11 Atlanta Hawks = 91.97 4 2 90.43( 12) 1 1 | 1 1 | 93.61 8 | 90.41 15 12 Milwaukee Bucks = 91.76 2 2 91.14( 6) 0 1 | 1 2 | 91.17 11 | 92.29 11 13 Toronto Raptors = 91.56 3 2 88.56( 27) 1 1 | 2 1 | 89.84 17 | 93.35 9 14 Dallas Mavericks = 91.24 3 2 89.31( 20) 1 0 | 1 0 | 89.94 16 | 92.53 10 15 Detroit Pistons = 90.16 2 4 92.74( 2) 1 1 | 1 3 | 88.56 19 | 91.67 13 16 Philadelphia 76ers = 89.56 3 2 90.02( 16) 0 2 | 1 2 | 91.77 9 | 87.18 22 17 Indiana Pacers = 89.28 2 3 90.97( 7) 0 2 | 0 3 | 90.38 14 | 88.06 21 18 Washington Wizards = 89.23 2 4 92.13( 5) 0 2 | 1 3 | 89.59 18 | 88.78 20 19 Charlotte Bobcats = 89.15 3 2 89.08( 25) 0 2 | 1 2 | 91.57 10 | 86.43 23 20 Oklahoma City Thunder = 88.62 2 3 89.25( 22) 0 3 | 1 3 | 87.28 20 | 89.79 17 NBA 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 6 Friday HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.77 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 21 Utah Jazz = 88.56 2 3 90.48( 10) 0 2 | 0 3 | 86.92 21 | 89.99 16 22 Los Angeles Clippers = 87.66 2 4 89.26( 21) 0 2 | 0 3 | 85.52 23 | 89.39 18 23 San Antonio Spurs = 87.53 2 3 88.81( 26) 0 2 | 0 2 | 85.97 22 | 88.82 19 24 New Orleans Hornets = 84.37 2 4 89.09( 24) 0 1 | 1 2 | 84.54 24 | 84.10 25 25 Minnesota Timberwolves = 84.35 1 5 90.78( 8) 0 3 | 0 4 | 83.32 27 | 85.13 24 26 New Jersey Nets = 82.91 0 6 92.38( 4) 0 2 | 0 3 | 84.03 25 | 81.19 30 27 Memphis Grizzlies = 82.60 1 5 90.64( 9) 0 2 | 1 3 | 82.96 28 | 82.11 27 28 New York Knicks = 82.57 1 5 89.11( 23) 0 2 | 0 3 | 83.42 26 | 81.35 29 29 Golden State Warriors = 82.20 1 3 88.33( 28) 0 2 | 0 2 | 81.92 30 | 82.37 26 30 Sacramento Kings = 82.15 1 4 87.77( 30) 0 0 | 0 1 | 82.63 29 | 81.49 28 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
There are two group ratings, the "central mean" and the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean")
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is in a sense the continuous version of the discrete "tri-mean".
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
1 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 92.83 93.03 ( 1) 5
2 CENTRAL (EAST) = 91.37 91.28 ( 2) 5
3 NORTHWEST (west) = 89.91 90.22 ( 3) 5
4 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 88.85 89.21 ( 4) 5
5 PACIFIC (west) = 88.18 88.63 ( 5) 5
6 SOUTHWEST (west) = 87.65 87.64 ( 6) 5
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
4 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 88.85 89.21 ( 4) 5
2 CENTRAL (EAST) = 91.37 91.28 ( 2) 5
1 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 92.83 93.03 ( 1) 5
6 SOUTHWEST (west) = 87.65 87.64 ( 6) 5
3 NORTHWEST (west) = 89.91 90.22 ( 3) 5
5 PACIFIC (west) = 88.18 88.63 ( 5) 5
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_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 88.85 89.21 ( 4) TEAMS= 5 NBA 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 6 Friday HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.77 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 1 Boston Celtics = 99.48 6 1 89.57( 17) 2 1 | 3 1 | 98.40 3 | 101.01 1 13 Toronto Raptors = 91.56 3 2 88.56( 27) 1 1 | 2 1 | 89.84 17 | 93.35 9 16 Philadelphia 76ers = 89.56 3 2 90.02( 16) 0 2 | 1 2 | 91.77 9 | 87.18 22 26 New Jersey Nets = 82.91 0 6 92.38( 4) 0 2 | 0 3 | 84.03 25 | 81.19 30 28 New York Knicks = 82.57 1 5 89.11( 23) 0 2 | 0 3 | 83.42 26 | 81.35 29 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 CENTRAL (EAST) = 91.37 91.28 ( 2) TEAMS= 5 NBA 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 6 Friday HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.77 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 7 Chicago Bulls = 92.93 3 2 94.48( 1) 1 2 | 2 2 | 96.24 6 | 90.44 14 10 Cleveland Cavaliers = 92.25 4 3 89.36( 19) 0 2 | 0 3 | 91.00 13 | 93.54 8 12 Milwaukee Bucks = 91.76 2 2 91.14( 6) 0 1 | 1 2 | 91.17 11 | 92.29 11 15 Detroit Pistons = 90.16 2 4 92.74( 2) 1 1 | 1 3 | 88.56 19 | 91.67 13 17 Indiana Pacers = 89.28 2 3 90.97( 7) 0 2 | 0 3 | 90.38 14 | 88.06 21 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 92.83 93.03 ( 1) TEAMS= 5 NBA 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 6 Friday HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.77 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 3 Miami Heat = 97.60 5 1 90.32( 14) 2 1 | 2 1 | 98.73 2 | 96.66 4 5 Orlando Magic = 97.17 5 1 90.42( 13) 1 0 | 4 1 | 96.51 5 | 97.86 2 11 Atlanta Hawks = 91.97 4 2 90.43( 12) 1 1 | 1 1 | 93.61 8 | 90.41 15 18 Washington Wizards = 89.23 2 4 92.13( 5) 0 2 | 1 3 | 89.59 18 | 88.78 20 19 Charlotte Bobcats = 89.15 3 2 89.08( 25) 0 2 | 1 2 | 91.57 10 | 86.43 23 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 SOUTHWEST (west) = 87.65 87.64 ( 6) TEAMS= 5 NBA 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 6 Friday HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.77 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 8 Houston Rockets = 92.45 4 2 89.48( 18) 1 2 | 1 2 | 91.11 12 | 93.86 7 14 Dallas Mavericks = 91.24 3 2 89.31( 20) 1 0 | 1 0 | 89.94 16 | 92.53 10 23 San Antonio Spurs = 87.53 2 3 88.81( 26) 0 2 | 0 2 | 85.97 22 | 88.82 19 24 New Orleans Hornets = 84.37 2 4 89.09( 24) 0 1 | 1 2 | 84.54 24 | 84.10 25 27 Memphis Grizzlies = 82.60 1 5 90.64( 9) 0 2 | 1 3 | 82.96 28 | 82.11 27 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 NORTHWEST (west) = 89.91 90.22 ( 3) TEAMS= 5 NBA 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 6 Friday HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.77 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 4 Denver Nuggets = 97.27 5 1 90.13( 15) 1 1 | 1 1 | 97.19 4 | 97.26 3 9 Portland Trail Blazers = 92.28 3 3 90.46( 11) 1 2 | 1 3 | 90.34 15 | 94.48 6 20 Oklahoma City Thunder = 88.62 2 3 89.25( 22) 0 3 | 1 3 | 87.28 20 | 89.79 17 21 Utah Jazz = 88.56 2 3 90.48( 10) 0 2 | 0 3 | 86.92 21 | 89.99 16 25 Minnesota Timberwolves = 84.35 1 5 90.78( 8) 0 3 | 0 4 | 83.32 27 | 85.13 24 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 PACIFIC (west) = 88.18 88.63 ( 5) TEAMS= 5 NBA 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 6 Friday HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.77 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 2 Phoenix Suns = 98.16 5 1 92.67( 3) 2 1 | 2 1 | 101.64 1 | 96.43 5 6 Los Angeles Lakers = 92.95 5 1 88.15( 29) 1 0 | 2 1 | 93.88 7 | 92.03 12 22 Los Angeles Clippers = 87.66 2 4 89.26( 21) 0 2 | 0 3 | 85.52 23 | 89.39 18 29 Golden State Warriors = 82.20 1 3 88.33( 28) 0 2 | 0 2 | 81.92 30 | 82.37 26 30 Sacramento Kings = 82.15 1 4 87.77( 30) 0 0 | 0 1 | 82.63 29 | 81.49 28 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________endfile