United States Naval Observatory
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"I particularly condemn the way our political leaders supplied the manpower for that war. The policies - determining who would be drafted and who would be deferred, who would serve and who would escape, who would die and who would live - were an antidemocratic disgrace. I can never forgive a leadership that said, in effect: These young men - poorer, less educated, less privileged - are expendable (someone described them as 'economic cannon fodder'), but the rest are too good to risk. I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful and well placed and so many professional athletes (who were probably healthier than any of us) managed to wangle slots in Reserve and National Guard units. Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country."
NFL 2009 Ratings through results of 2009 NOVEMBER 16 MONDAY - Week 10
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent the average schedule difficulty faced
by each team in the games that it's played so far. The schedule
difficulty of a given game takes into account the rating of the
opponent and the location of the game.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 14.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
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In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR
of future games.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).
NFL ratings will be updated after games of Sunday and again after the Monday night game.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NFL 2009 through games of November 16 Monday - Week 10 HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.58 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 1 Indianapolis Colts = 31.37 9 0 0 19.62( 22) 2 0 0 | 4 0 0 | 34.24 1 | 29.69 2 2 New Orleans Saints = 29.70 9 0 0 17.21( 30) 1 0 0 | 3 0 0 | 31.25 2 | 28.50 3 3 Cincinnati Bengals = 28.70 7 2 0 22.55( 2) 4 1 0 | 5 2 0 | 29.99 3 | 27.63 5 4 New England Patriots = 27.68 6 3 0 20.69( 13) 2 2 0 | 3 3 0 | 25.86 7 | 30.25 1 5 Minnesota Vikings = 27.21 8 1 0 17.48( 29) 1 1 0 | 3 1 0 | 28.76 4 | 25.93 6 6 Baltimore Ravens = 26.29 5 4 0 21.78( 5) 1 4 0 | 2 4 0 | 24.57 9 | 28.48 4 7 Pittsburgh Steelers = 25.69 6 3 0 20.82( 12) 2 2 0 | 3 2 0 | 26.65 5 | 24.80 7 8 Arizona Cardinals = 24.94 6 3 0 20.27( 16) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 25.10 8 | 24.76 8 9 Denver Broncos = 24.64 6 3 0 21.04( 7) 2 2 0 | 4 2 0 | 25.90 6 | 23.49 13 10 Atlanta Falcons = 23.40 5 4 0 21.01( 9) 0 2 0 | 1 3 0 | 22.76 12 | 24.04 11 NFL 2009 through games of November 16 Monday - Week 10 HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.58 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 11 Dallas Cowboys = 23.24 6 3 0 18.70( 25) 1 1 0 | 1 2 0 | 22.34 13 | 24.17 10 12 Houston Texans = 23.02 5 4 0 20.94( 11) 1 2 0 | 1 3 0 | 23.37 10 | 22.65 16 13 San Diego Chargers = 23.02 6 3 0 18.75( 24) 0 3 0 | 1 3 0 | 23.30 11 | 22.71 15 14 Green Bay Packers = 22.32 5 4 0 18.03( 28) 0 3 0 | 1 3 0 | 20.23 16 | 24.62 9 15 New York Jets = 21.50 4 5 0 20.05( 17) 1 1 0 | 2 3 0 | 19.17 19 | 23.97 12 16 Miami Dolphins = 21.17 4 5 0 22.28( 4) 0 4 0 | 2 5 0 | 20.99 15 | 21.32 19 17 San Francisco 49ers = 21.10 4 5 0 21.04( 6) 1 3 0 | 1 4 0 | 19.88 17 | 22.34 18 18 New York Giants = 21.05 5 4 0 18.37( 26) 0 2 0 | 1 3 0 | 19.55 18 | 22.58 17 19 Philadelphia Eagles = 20.77 5 4 0 17.17( 31) 0 1 0 | 0 3 0 | 18.79 20 | 22.79 14 20 Chicago Bears = 18.81 4 5 0 20.58( 14) 1 3 0 | 1 4 0 | 18.44 22 | 19.14 20 NFL 2009 through games of November 16 Monday - Week 10 HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.58 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 21 Jacksonville Jaguars = 18.00 5 4 0 19.20( 23) 0 2 0 | 2 2 0 | 21.11 14 | 14.34 24 22 Tennessee Titans = 17.14 3 6 0 22.47( 3) 0 3 0 | 0 5 0 | 18.65 21 | 15.44 23 23 Carolina Panthers = 17.09 4 5 0 20.28( 15) 2 2 0 | 2 3 0 | 18.19 23 | 15.88 22 24 Seattle Seahawks = 16.79 3 6 0 19.79( 20) 0 3 0 | 0 4 0 | 14.70 25 | 18.59 21 25 Buffalo Bills = 14.27 3 6 0 20.03( 18) 0 2 0 | 1 4 0 | 15.51 24 | 12.75 25 26 Cleveland Browns = 11.76 1 8 0 23.98( 1) 0 6 0 | 0 7 0 | 13.22 26 | 9.73 29 27 Washington Redskins = 11.59 3 6 0 15.92( 32) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 10.23 29 | 12.65 26 28 Kansas City Chiefs = 11.00 2 7 0 18.36( 27) 0 1 0 | 0 3 0 | 10.27 28 | 11.60 27 29 Oakland Raiders = 9.84 2 7 0 19.72( 21) 0 1 0 | 0 5 0 | 11.18 27 | 7.90 31 30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 9.62 1 8 0 19.91( 19) 0 1 0 | 1 3 0 | 8.41 31 | 10.54 28 NFL 2009 through games of November 16 Monday - Week 10 HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.58 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 31 Detroit Lions = 8.97 1 8 0 21.02( 8) 0 4 0 | 0 5 0 | 8.25 32 | 9.55 30 32 St. Louis Rams = 8.29 1 8 0 20.96( 10) 0 3 0 | 0 4 0 | 9.15 30 | 7.15 32 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
There are two group ratings, the "central mean" and the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean")
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is in a sense the continuous version of the discrete "tri-mean".
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
1 (afc north) = 24.07 23.11 ( 1) 4
2 (afc south) = 21.76 22.38 ( 2) 4
3 (afc east) = 21.21 21.15 ( 3) 4
4 (NFC SOUTH) = 20.05 19.95 ( 4) 4
5 (NFC EAST) = 19.75 19.17 ( 6) 4
6 (NFC NORTH) = 19.74 19.33 ( 5) 4
7 (NFC WEST) = 18.17 17.78 ( 7) 4
8 (afc west) = 17.09 17.13 ( 8) 4
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
5 (NFC EAST) = 19.75 19.17 ( 6) 4
6 (NFC NORTH) = 19.74 19.33 ( 5) 4
4 (NFC SOUTH) = 20.05 19.95 ( 4) 4
7 (NFC WEST) = 18.17 17.78 ( 7) 4
3 (afc east) = 21.21 21.15 ( 3) 4
1 (afc north) = 24.07 23.11 ( 1) 4
2 (afc south) = 21.76 22.38 ( 2) 4
8 (afc west) = 17.09 17.13 ( 8) 4
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_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 (NFC EAST) = 19.75 19.17 ( 6) TEAMS= 4 NFL 2009 through games of November 16 Monday - Week 10 HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.58 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 11 Dallas Cowboys = 23.24 6 3 0 18.70( 25) 1 1 0 | 1 2 0 | 22.34 13 | 24.17 10 18 New York Giants = 21.05 5 4 0 18.37( 26) 0 2 0 | 1 3 0 | 19.55 18 | 22.58 17 19 Philadelphia Eagles = 20.77 5 4 0 17.17( 31) 0 1 0 | 0 3 0 | 18.79 20 | 22.79 14 27 Washington Redskins = 11.59 3 6 0 15.92( 32) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 10.23 29 | 12.65 26 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 (NFC NORTH) = 19.74 19.33 ( 5) TEAMS= 4 NFL 2009 through games of November 16 Monday - Week 10 HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.58 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 5 Minnesota Vikings = 27.21 8 1 0 17.48( 29) 1 1 0 | 3 1 0 | 28.76 4 | 25.93 6 14 Green Bay Packers = 22.32 5 4 0 18.03( 28) 0 3 0 | 1 3 0 | 20.23 16 | 24.62 9 20 Chicago Bears = 18.81 4 5 0 20.58( 14) 1 3 0 | 1 4 0 | 18.44 22 | 19.14 20 31 Detroit Lions = 8.97 1 8 0 21.02( 8) 0 4 0 | 0 5 0 | 8.25 32 | 9.55 30 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 (NFC SOUTH) = 20.05 19.95 ( 4) TEAMS= 4 NFL 2009 through games of November 16 Monday - Week 10 HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.58 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 2 New Orleans Saints = 29.70 9 0 0 17.21( 30) 1 0 0 | 3 0 0 | 31.25 2 | 28.50 3 10 Atlanta Falcons = 23.40 5 4 0 21.01( 9) 0 2 0 | 1 3 0 | 22.76 12 | 24.04 11 23 Carolina Panthers = 17.09 4 5 0 20.28( 15) 2 2 0 | 2 3 0 | 18.19 23 | 15.88 22 30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 9.62 1 8 0 19.91( 19) 0 1 0 | 1 3 0 | 8.41 31 | 10.54 28 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 7 (NFC WEST) = 18.17 17.78 ( 7) TEAMS= 4 NFL 2009 through games of November 16 Monday - Week 10 HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.58 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 8 Arizona Cardinals = 24.94 6 3 0 20.27( 16) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 25.10 8 | 24.76 8 17 San Francisco 49ers = 21.10 4 5 0 21.04( 6) 1 3 0 | 1 4 0 | 19.88 17 | 22.34 18 24 Seattle Seahawks = 16.79 3 6 0 19.79( 20) 0 3 0 | 0 4 0 | 14.70 25 | 18.59 21 32 St. Louis Rams = 8.29 1 8 0 20.96( 10) 0 3 0 | 0 4 0 | 9.15 30 | 7.15 32 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 (afc east) = 21.21 21.15 ( 3) TEAMS= 4 NFL 2009 through games of November 16 Monday - Week 10 HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.58 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 4 New England Patriots = 27.68 6 3 0 20.69( 13) 2 2 0 | 3 3 0 | 25.86 7 | 30.25 1 15 New York Jets = 21.50 4 5 0 20.05( 17) 1 1 0 | 2 3 0 | 19.17 19 | 23.97 12 16 Miami Dolphins = 21.17 4 5 0 22.28( 4) 0 4 0 | 2 5 0 | 20.99 15 | 21.32 19 25 Buffalo Bills = 14.27 3 6 0 20.03( 18) 0 2 0 | 1 4 0 | 15.51 24 | 12.75 25 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 (afc north) = 24.07 23.11 ( 1) TEAMS= 4 NFL 2009 through games of November 16 Monday - Week 10 HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.58 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 3 Cincinnati Bengals = 28.70 7 2 0 22.55( 2) 4 1 0 | 5 2 0 | 29.99 3 | 27.63 5 6 Baltimore Ravens = 26.29 5 4 0 21.78( 5) 1 4 0 | 2 4 0 | 24.57 9 | 28.48 4 7 Pittsburgh Steelers = 25.69 6 3 0 20.82( 12) 2 2 0 | 3 2 0 | 26.65 5 | 24.80 7 26 Cleveland Browns = 11.76 1 8 0 23.98( 1) 0 6 0 | 0 7 0 | 13.22 26 | 9.73 29 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 (afc south) = 21.76 22.38 ( 2) TEAMS= 4 NFL 2009 through games of November 16 Monday - Week 10 HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.58 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 1 Indianapolis Colts = 31.37 9 0 0 19.62( 22) 2 0 0 | 4 0 0 | 34.24 1 | 29.69 2 12 Houston Texans = 23.02 5 4 0 20.94( 11) 1 2 0 | 1 3 0 | 23.37 10 | 22.65 16 21 Jacksonville Jaguars = 18.00 5 4 0 19.20( 23) 0 2 0 | 2 2 0 | 21.11 14 | 14.34 24 22 Tennessee Titans = 17.14 3 6 0 22.47( 3) 0 3 0 | 0 5 0 | 18.65 21 | 15.44 23 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 8 (afc west) = 17.09 17.13 ( 8) TEAMS= 4 NFL 2009 through games of November 16 Monday - Week 10 HOME ADVANTAGE= 1.58 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 9 Denver Broncos = 24.64 6 3 0 21.04( 7) 2 2 0 | 4 2 0 | 25.90 6 | 23.49 13 13 San Diego Chargers = 23.02 6 3 0 18.75( 24) 0 3 0 | 1 3 0 | 23.30 11 | 22.71 15 28 Kansas City Chiefs = 11.00 2 7 0 18.36( 27) 0 1 0 | 0 3 0 | 10.27 28 | 11.60 27 29 Oakland Raiders = 9.84 2 7 0 19.72( 21) 0 1 0 | 0 5 0 | 11.18 27 | 7.90 31 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________endfile