United States Naval Observatory
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"I particularly condemn the way our political leaders supplied the manpower for that war. The policies - determining who would be drafted and who would be deferred, who would serve and who would escape, who would die and who would live - were an antidemocratic disgrace. I can never forgive a leadership that said, in effect: These young men - poorer, less educated, less privileged - are expendable (someone described them as 'economic cannon fodder'), but the rest are too good to risk. I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful and well placed and so many professional athletes (who were probably healthier than any of us) managed to wangle slots in Reserve and National Guard units. Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country."
Final NFL 2008 Ratings through results of 2009 FEBRUARY 1 SUNDAY (Super Bowl)
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent the average schedule difficulty faced
by each team in the games that it's played so far. The schedule
difficulty of a given game takes into account the rating of the
opponent and the location of the game.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 27 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 25.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 24 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 14.
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
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In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR
of future games.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).
NFL ratings will be updated after games of Sunday and again after the Monday night game.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Final NFL 2008 through games of 2009 February 1 Sunday (Super Bowl) HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.55 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 1 Pittsburgh Steelers = 31.14 15 4 0 22.37( 4) 5 4 0 | 8 4 0 | 32.31 1 | 30.35 1 2 Baltimore Ravens = 29.95 13 6 0 22.65( 3) 2 6 0 | 5 6 0 | 29.92 2 | 30.10 2 3 Philadelphia Eagles = 27.53 11 7 1 21.95( 5) 5 3 0 | 7 5 0 | 26.30 5 | 29.31 3 4 Tennessee Titans = 27.38 13 4 0 20.16( 15) 3 2 0 | 5 2 0 | 27.17 3 | 27.71 4 5 New York Giants = 26.85 12 5 0 21.43( 6) 5 2 0 | 6 4 0 | 26.81 4 | 27.00 5 6 Indianapolis Colts = 26.04 12 5 0 21.18( 10) 4 1 0 | 6 3 0 | 25.92 6 | 26.28 6 7 Arizona Cardinals = 24.31 12 8 0 20.10( 16) 3 5 0 | 5 6 0 | 25.14 7 | 23.66 9 8 New England Patriots = 24.20 11 5 0 18.38( 29) 1 2 0 | 2 4 0 | 24.70 8 | 23.83 7 9 Carolina Panthers = 23.59 12 5 0 19.56( 22) 2 3 0 | 5 5 0 | 24.16 9 | 23.15 10 10 Atlanta Falcons = 22.59 11 6 0 19.08( 24) 1 3 0 | 5 4 0 | 22.50 12 | 22.80 13 Final NFL 2008 through games of 2009 February 1 Sunday (Super Bowl) HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.55 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 11 Dallas Cowboys = 22.48 9 7 0 21.40( 7) 2 5 0 | 3 5 0 | 23.33 10 | 21.79 17 12 San Diego Chargers = 22.32 9 9 0 19.91( 17) 2 5 0 | 3 6 0 | 21.14 15 | 23.71 8 13 Minnesota Vikings = 22.25 10 7 0 20.52( 14) 3 4 0 | 4 6 0 | 21.59 13 | 23.06 12 14 Chicago Bears = 21.20 9 7 0 19.42( 23) 2 3 0 | 3 5 0 | 20.30 18 | 22.25 15 15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 20.99 9 7 0 18.78( 27) 2 2 0 | 4 4 0 | 19.94 19 | 22.19 16 16 Miami Dolphins = 20.82 11 6 0 18.82( 26) 1 4 0 | 2 4 0 | 22.98 11 | 18.88 20 17 New Orleans Saints = 20.78 8 8 0 19.02( 25) 1 3 0 | 3 6 0 | 18.64 20 | 23.14 11 18 Houston Texans = 20.31 8 8 0 20.89( 12) 1 5 0 | 3 6 0 | 20.84 16 | 19.89 18 19 New York Jets = 19.90 9 7 0 18.00( 31) 3 1 0 | 4 3 0 | 20.57 17 | 19.34 19 20 Washington Redskins = 19.83 8 8 0 20.96( 11) 3 4 0 | 4 5 0 | 21.18 14 | 18.59 21 Final NFL 2008 through games of 2009 February 1 Sunday (Super Bowl) HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.55 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 21 Green Bay Packers = 19.20 6 10 0 19.65( 21) 1 3 0 | 3 7 0 | 15.49 27 | 22.74 14 22 San Francisco 49ers = 16.61 7 9 0 18.57( 28) 0 5 0 | 0 7 0 | 17.02 22 | 16.29 23 23 Denver Broncos = 16.12 8 8 0 18.13( 30) 1 2 0 | 3 4 0 | 18.27 21 | 13.51 27 24 Jacksonville Jaguars = 16.08 5 11 0 21.28( 8) 1 5 0 | 1 7 0 | 15.51 26 | 16.73 22 25 Buffalo Bills = 15.84 7 9 0 17.87( 32) 0 3 0 | 1 5 0 | 16.67 24 | 15.04 24 26 Cincinnati Bengals = 15.20 4 11 1 23.02( 2) 0 7 1 | 0 8 1 | 16.71 23 | 13.48 28 27 Cleveland Browns = 15.08 4 12 0 23.19( 1) 1 7 0 | 1 8 0 | 16.24 25 | 13.87 25 28 Oakland Raiders = 13.25 5 11 0 19.68( 19) 0 4 0 | 1 7 0 | 14.63 28 | 11.60 29 29 Seattle Seahawks = 13.18 4 12 0 19.77( 18) 0 5 0 | 0 8 0 | 12.69 29 | 13.73 26 30 Kansas City Chiefs = 9.54 2 14 0 19.67( 20) 0 4 0 | 0 8 0 | 9.00 31 | 10.11 30 Final NFL 2008 through games of 2009 February 1 Sunday (Super Bowl) HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.55 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 31 St. Louis Rams = 8.39 2 14 0 20.59( 13) 0 6 0 | 1 8 0 | 9.42 30 | 7.09 32 32 Detroit Lions = 7.08 0 16 0 21.22( 9) 0 4 0 | 0 9 0 | 2.93 32 | 8.79 31 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
There are two group ratings, the "central mean" and the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean")
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is in a sense the continuous version of the discrete "tri-mean".
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
1 (NFC EAST) = 24.34 24.17 ( 1) 4
2 (afc north) = 22.75 22.84 ( 2) 4
3 (afc south) = 22.69 22.45 ( 3) 4
4 (NFC SOUTH) = 21.92 21.99 ( 4) 4
5 (afc east) = 20.25 20.19 ( 5) 4
6 (NFC NORTH) = 18.35 17.43 ( 6) 4
7 (NFC WEST) = 15.38 15.62 ( 7) 4
8 (afc west) = 15.10 15.31 ( 8) 4
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
1 (NFC EAST) = 24.34 24.17 ( 1) 4
6 (NFC NORTH) = 18.35 17.43 ( 6) 4
4 (NFC SOUTH) = 21.92 21.99 ( 4) 4
7 (NFC WEST) = 15.38 15.62 ( 7) 4
5 (afc east) = 20.25 20.19 ( 5) 4
2 (afc north) = 22.75 22.84 ( 2) 4
3 (afc south) = 22.69 22.45 ( 3) 4
8 (afc west) = 15.10 15.31 ( 8) 4
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_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 (NFC EAST) = 24.34 24.17 ( 1) TEAMS= 4 Final NFL 2008 through games of 2009 February 1 Sunday (Super Bowl) HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.55 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 3 Philadelphia Eagles = 27.53 11 7 1 21.95( 5) 5 3 0 | 7 5 0 | 26.30 5 | 29.31 3 5 New York Giants = 26.85 12 5 0 21.43( 6) 5 2 0 | 6 4 0 | 26.81 4 | 27.00 5 11 Dallas Cowboys = 22.48 9 7 0 21.40( 7) 2 5 0 | 3 5 0 | 23.33 10 | 21.79 17 20 Washington Redskins = 19.83 8 8 0 20.96( 11) 3 4 0 | 4 5 0 | 21.18 14 | 18.59 21 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 (NFC NORTH) = 18.35 17.43 ( 6) TEAMS= 4 Final NFL 2008 through games of 2009 February 1 Sunday (Super Bowl) HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.55 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 13 Minnesota Vikings = 22.25 10 7 0 20.52( 14) 3 4 0 | 4 6 0 | 21.59 13 | 23.06 12 14 Chicago Bears = 21.20 9 7 0 19.42( 23) 2 3 0 | 3 5 0 | 20.30 18 | 22.25 15 21 Green Bay Packers = 19.20 6 10 0 19.65( 21) 1 3 0 | 3 7 0 | 15.49 27 | 22.74 14 32 Detroit Lions = 7.08 0 16 0 21.22( 9) 0 4 0 | 0 9 0 | 2.93 32 | 8.79 31 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 (NFC SOUTH) = 21.92 21.99 ( 4) TEAMS= 4 Final NFL 2008 through games of 2009 February 1 Sunday (Super Bowl) HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.55 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 9 Carolina Panthers = 23.59 12 5 0 19.56( 22) 2 3 0 | 5 5 0 | 24.16 9 | 23.15 10 10 Atlanta Falcons = 22.59 11 6 0 19.08( 24) 1 3 0 | 5 4 0 | 22.50 12 | 22.80 13 15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 20.99 9 7 0 18.78( 27) 2 2 0 | 4 4 0 | 19.94 19 | 22.19 16 17 New Orleans Saints = 20.78 8 8 0 19.02( 25) 1 3 0 | 3 6 0 | 18.64 20 | 23.14 11 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 7 (NFC WEST) = 15.38 15.62 ( 7) TEAMS= 4 Final NFL 2008 through games of 2009 February 1 Sunday (Super Bowl) HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.55 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 7 Arizona Cardinals = 24.31 12 8 0 20.10( 16) 3 5 0 | 5 6 0 | 25.14 7 | 23.66 9 22 San Francisco 49ers = 16.61 7 9 0 18.57( 28) 0 5 0 | 0 7 0 | 17.02 22 | 16.29 23 29 Seattle Seahawks = 13.18 4 12 0 19.77( 18) 0 5 0 | 0 8 0 | 12.69 29 | 13.73 26 31 St. Louis Rams = 8.39 2 14 0 20.59( 13) 0 6 0 | 1 8 0 | 9.42 30 | 7.09 32 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 (afc east) = 20.25 20.19 ( 5) TEAMS= 4 Final NFL 2008 through games of 2009 February 1 Sunday (Super Bowl) HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.55 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 8 New England Patriots = 24.20 11 5 0 18.38( 29) 1 2 0 | 2 4 0 | 24.70 8 | 23.83 7 16 Miami Dolphins = 20.82 11 6 0 18.82( 26) 1 4 0 | 2 4 0 | 22.98 11 | 18.88 20 19 New York Jets = 19.90 9 7 0 18.00( 31) 3 1 0 | 4 3 0 | 20.57 17 | 19.34 19 25 Buffalo Bills = 15.84 7 9 0 17.87( 32) 0 3 0 | 1 5 0 | 16.67 24 | 15.04 24 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 (afc north) = 22.75 22.84 ( 2) TEAMS= 4 Final NFL 2008 through games of 2009 February 1 Sunday (Super Bowl) HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.55 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 1 Pittsburgh Steelers = 31.14 15 4 0 22.37( 4) 5 4 0 | 8 4 0 | 32.31 1 | 30.35 1 2 Baltimore Ravens = 29.95 13 6 0 22.65( 3) 2 6 0 | 5 6 0 | 29.92 2 | 30.10 2 26 Cincinnati Bengals = 15.20 4 11 1 23.02( 2) 0 7 1 | 0 8 1 | 16.71 23 | 13.48 28 27 Cleveland Browns = 15.08 4 12 0 23.19( 1) 1 7 0 | 1 8 0 | 16.24 25 | 13.87 25 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 (afc south) = 22.69 22.45 ( 3) TEAMS= 4 Final NFL 2008 through games of 2009 February 1 Sunday (Super Bowl) HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.55 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 4 Tennessee Titans = 27.38 13 4 0 20.16( 15) 3 2 0 | 5 2 0 | 27.17 3 | 27.71 4 6 Indianapolis Colts = 26.04 12 5 0 21.18( 10) 4 1 0 | 6 3 0 | 25.92 6 | 26.28 6 18 Houston Texans = 20.31 8 8 0 20.89( 12) 1 5 0 | 3 6 0 | 20.84 16 | 19.89 18 24 Jacksonville Jaguars = 16.08 5 11 0 21.28( 8) 1 5 0 | 1 7 0 | 15.51 26 | 16.73 22 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 8 (afc west) = 15.10 15.31 ( 8) TEAMS= 4 Final NFL 2008 through games of 2009 February 1 Sunday (Super Bowl) HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.55 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS 12 San Diego Chargers = 22.32 9 9 0 19.91( 17) 2 5 0 | 3 6 0 | 21.14 15 | 23.71 8 23 Denver Broncos = 16.12 8 8 0 18.13( 30) 1 2 0 | 3 4 0 | 18.27 21 | 13.51 27 28 Oakland Raiders = 13.25 5 11 0 19.68( 19) 0 4 0 | 1 7 0 | 14.63 28 | 11.60 29 30 Kansas City Chiefs = 9.54 2 14 0 19.67( 20) 0 4 0 | 0 8 0 | 9.00 31 | 10.11 30 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________endfile