United States Naval Observatory
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NHL 2009-2010 ratings through results of 2010 MARCH 14 SUNDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .25 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by .57 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .42 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .25 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
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In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR
of future games.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2010 March 14 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.36 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 1 Chicago Blackhawks = 4.76 44 24 4.01( 14) 15 10 | 26 16 | 4.71 1 | 4.82 2 2 Washington Capitals = 4.74 46 23 3.87( 30) 8 6 | 16 10 | 4.65 3 | 4.89 1 3 San Jose Sharks = 4.70 43 25 4.04( 10) 14 12 | 24 18 | 4.67 2 | 4.72 4 4 Vancouver Canucks = 4.67 43 26 4.02( 12) 15 8 | 25 17 | 4.60 4 | 4.76 3 5 Phoenix Coyotes = 4.44 42 27 4.02( 11) 13 10 | 24 17 | 4.54 5 | 4.35 7 6 Los Angeles Kings = 4.43 40 28 4.07( 9) 11 13 | 18 22 | 4.48 6 | 4.39 6 7 Colorado Avalanche = 4.38 39 29 4.00( 15) 7 14 | 19 21 | 4.35 8 | 4.42 5 8 New Jersey Devils = 4.33 40 27 3.93( 20) 10 7 | 14 14 | 4.39 7 | 4.27 8 9 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.23 41 28 3.91( 27) 1 13 | 11 17 | 4.34 9 | 4.12 9 10 Nashville Predators = 4.19 38 31 4.11( 6) 13 14 | 19 23 | 4.33 10 | 4.06 15 NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2010 March 14 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.36 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 11 Buffalo Sabres = 4.11 36 31 3.91( 28) 9 11 | 15 14 | 4.09 11 | 4.12 10 12 Philadelphia Flyers = 4.09 36 32 3.92( 26) 8 13 | 11 17 | 4.06 14 | 4.12 11 13 Detroit Red Wings = 4.07 33 35 4.13( 1) 17 15 | 22 23 | 4.07 12 | 4.06 13 14 Calgary Flames = 4.04 34 34 4.02( 13) 11 16 | 15 25 | 4.03 15 | 4.06 14 15 St. Louis Blues = 4.01 32 36 4.09( 7) 10 17 | 19 23 | 3.95 17 | 4.08 12 16 Minnesota Wild = 3.99 33 35 4.08( 8) 13 17 | 21 22 | 4.02 16 | 3.96 16 17 Ottawa Senators = 3.93 37 32 3.90( 29) 7 12 | 16 15 | 4.06 13 | 3.78 21 18 Montreal Canadiens = 3.88 35 35 3.93( 22) 7 12 | 9 22 | 3.92 19 | 3.83 17 19 Anaheim Ducks = 3.86 31 37 4.12( 5) 11 20 | 21 26 | 3.92 18 | 3.79 20 20 New York Rangers = 3.77 31 38 3.96( 17) 7 17 | 10 25 | 3.74 21 | 3.80 19 NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2010 March 14 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.36 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 21 Dallas Stars = 3.77 29 39 4.12( 4) 11 20 | 20 27 | 3.78 20 | 3.76 22 22 Boston Bruins = 3.75 30 37 3.92( 25) 3 13 | 10 17 | 3.69 22 | 3.80 18 23 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.64 27 42 4.13( 2) 6 25 | 14 34 | 3.63 23 | 3.66 23 24 Florida Panthers = 3.61 28 39 3.96( 18) 5 15 | 12 18 | 3.56 24 | 3.65 24 25 Atlanta Thrashers = 3.57 28 40 3.92( 23) 2 15 | 9 18 | 3.51 26 | 3.63 25 26 Tampa Bay Lightning = 3.56 28 40 3.95( 19) 7 13 | 10 20 | 3.53 25 | 3.59 26 27 Carolina Hurricanes = 3.54 28 40 3.92( 24) 7 11 | 10 20 | 3.50 27 | 3.56 27 28 New York Islanders = 3.47 28 41 3.93( 21) 8 11 | 11 21 | 3.48 28 | 3.45 28 29 Toronto Maple Leafs = 3.24 23 46 3.98( 16) 5 13 | 7 24 | 3.19 30 | 3.28 29 30 Edmonton Oilers = 3.22 21 47 4.12( 3) 7 23 | 13 34 | 3.22 29 | 3.21 30 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 PACIFIC (west) = 4.26 4.24 ( 1) 5 4.24 ( 1)
2 CENTRAL (west) = 4.11 4.14 ( 2) 5 4.13 ( 2)
3 NORTHWEST (west) = 4.09 4.06 ( 3) 5 4.06 ( 3)
4 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 4.01 3.98 ( 4) 5 3.98 ( 4)
5 NORTHEAST (EAST) = 3.81 3.78 ( 6) 5 3.78 ( 6)
6 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 3.71 3.81 ( 5) 5 3.80 ( 5)
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
4 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 4.01 3.98 ( 4) 5 3.98 ( 4)
5 NORTHEAST (EAST) = 3.81 3.78 ( 6) 5 3.78 ( 6)
6 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 3.71 3.81 ( 5) 5 3.80 ( 5)
2 CENTRAL (west) = 4.11 4.14 ( 2) 5 4.13 ( 2)
3 NORTHWEST (west) = 4.09 4.06 ( 3) 5 4.06 ( 3)
1 PACIFIC (west) = 4.26 4.24 ( 1) 5 4.24 ( 1)
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_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 4.01 3.98 ( 4) TEAMS= 5 3.98 ( 4) NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2010 March 14 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.36 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 8 New Jersey Devils = 4.33 40 27 3.93( 20) 10 7 | 14 14 | 4.39 7 | 4.27 8 9 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.23 41 28 3.91( 27) 1 13 | 11 17 | 4.34 9 | 4.12 9 12 Philadelphia Flyers = 4.09 36 32 3.92( 26) 8 13 | 11 17 | 4.06 14 | 4.12 11 20 New York Rangers = 3.77 31 38 3.96( 17) 7 17 | 10 25 | 3.74 21 | 3.80 19 28 New York Islanders = 3.47 28 41 3.93( 21) 8 11 | 11 21 | 3.48 28 | 3.45 28 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 NORTHEAST (EAST) = 3.81 3.78 ( 6) TEAMS= 5 3.78 ( 6) NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2010 March 14 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.36 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 11 Buffalo Sabres = 4.11 36 31 3.91( 28) 9 11 | 15 14 | 4.09 11 | 4.12 10 17 Ottawa Senators = 3.93 37 32 3.90( 29) 7 12 | 16 15 | 4.06 13 | 3.78 21 18 Montreal Canadiens = 3.88 35 35 3.93( 22) 7 12 | 9 22 | 3.92 19 | 3.83 17 22 Boston Bruins = 3.75 30 37 3.92( 25) 3 13 | 10 17 | 3.69 22 | 3.80 18 29 Toronto Maple Leafs = 3.24 23 46 3.98( 16) 5 13 | 7 24 | 3.19 30 | 3.28 29 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 3.71 3.81 ( 5) TEAMS= 5 3.80 ( 5) NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2010 March 14 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.36 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 2 Washington Capitals = 4.74 46 23 3.87( 30) 8 6 | 16 10 | 4.65 3 | 4.89 1 24 Florida Panthers = 3.61 28 39 3.96( 18) 5 15 | 12 18 | 3.56 24 | 3.65 24 25 Atlanta Thrashers = 3.57 28 40 3.92( 23) 2 15 | 9 18 | 3.51 26 | 3.63 25 26 Tampa Bay Lightning = 3.56 28 40 3.95( 19) 7 13 | 10 20 | 3.53 25 | 3.59 26 27 Carolina Hurricanes = 3.54 28 40 3.92( 24) 7 11 | 10 20 | 3.50 27 | 3.56 27 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 CENTRAL (west) = 4.11 4.14 ( 2) TEAMS= 5 4.13 ( 2) NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2010 March 14 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.36 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 1 Chicago Blackhawks = 4.76 44 24 4.01( 14) 15 10 | 26 16 | 4.71 1 | 4.82 2 10 Nashville Predators = 4.19 38 31 4.11( 6) 13 14 | 19 23 | 4.33 10 | 4.06 15 13 Detroit Red Wings = 4.07 33 35 4.13( 1) 17 15 | 22 23 | 4.07 12 | 4.06 13 15 St. Louis Blues = 4.01 32 36 4.09( 7) 10 17 | 19 23 | 3.95 17 | 4.08 12 23 Columbus Blue Jackets = 3.64 27 42 4.13( 2) 6 25 | 14 34 | 3.63 23 | 3.66 23 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 NORTHWEST (west) = 4.09 4.06 ( 3) TEAMS= 5 4.06 ( 3) NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2010 March 14 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.36 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 4 Vancouver Canucks = 4.67 43 26 4.02( 12) 15 8 | 25 17 | 4.60 4 | 4.76 3 7 Colorado Avalanche = 4.38 39 29 4.00( 15) 7 14 | 19 21 | 4.35 8 | 4.42 5 14 Calgary Flames = 4.04 34 34 4.02( 13) 11 16 | 15 25 | 4.03 15 | 4.06 14 16 Minnesota Wild = 3.99 33 35 4.08( 8) 13 17 | 21 22 | 4.02 16 | 3.96 16 30 Edmonton Oilers = 3.22 21 47 4.12( 3) 7 23 | 13 34 | 3.22 29 | 3.21 30 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 PACIFIC (west) = 4.26 4.24 ( 1) TEAMS= 5 4.24 ( 1) NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2010 March 14 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.36 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 3 San Jose Sharks = 4.70 43 25 4.04( 10) 14 12 | 24 18 | 4.67 2 | 4.72 4 5 Phoenix Coyotes = 4.44 42 27 4.02( 11) 13 10 | 24 17 | 4.54 5 | 4.35 7 6 Los Angeles Kings = 4.43 40 28 4.07( 9) 11 13 | 18 22 | 4.48 6 | 4.39 6 19 Anaheim Ducks = 3.86 31 37 4.12( 5) 11 20 | 21 26 | 3.92 18 | 3.79 20 21 Dallas Stars = 3.77 29 39 4.12( 4) 11 20 | 20 27 | 3.78 20 | 3.76 22 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________endfile