United States Naval Observatory
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NHL 2009-2010 ratings through results of 2009 NOVEMBER 19 THURSDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
(3) teams listed by DIVISION
(listed in order within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent the average schedule difficulty faced
by each team in the games that it's played so far. The schedule
difficulty of a given game takes into account the rating of the
opponent and the location of the game.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .25 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 4.43 would be
favored by .57 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 4.11
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 4.56 would be favored by .42 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 3.89
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .25 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.
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In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR
of future games.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 19 Thursday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.32 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 1 New Jersey Devils = 4.88 14 6 4.11( 8) 3 4 | 6 5 | 4.94 1 | 4.82 4 2 Philadelphia Flyers = 4.75 12 6 3.88( 27) 4 3 | 5 4 | 4.64 2 | 4.88 1 3 Washington Capitals = 4.72 13 8 4.13( 4) 4 5 | 5 7 | 4.61 3 | 4.86 3 4 San Jose Sharks = 4.71 14 9 4.14( 3) 3 4 | 8 6 | 4.60 5 | 4.86 2 5 Chicago Blackhawks = 4.66 13 7 3.93( 22) 5 2 | 6 4 | 4.61 4 | 4.72 5 6 Buffalo Sabres = 4.53 12 6 3.92( 23) 4 2 | 5 2 | 4.59 6 | 4.47 7 7 Colorado Avalanche = 4.45 13 9 4.10( 9) 6 3 | 8 5 | 4.45 7 | 4.46 8 8 Atlanta Thrashers = 4.44 10 8 4.05( 10) 2 3 | 4 4 | 4.28 13 | 4.63 6 9 Calgary Flames = 4.32 12 8 3.98( 15) 0 6 | 4 7 | 4.40 10 | 4.24 12 10 Detroit Red Wings = 4.26 10 9 4.04( 11) 4 3 | 8 4 | 4.16 15 | 4.36 9 NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 19 Thursday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.32 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 11 Los Angeles Kings = 4.22 13 10 4.12( 5) 1 5 | 5 9 | 4.36 11 | 4.09 14 12 Columbus Blue Jackets = 4.21 12 8 4.02( 13) 3 4 | 6 7 | 4.44 8 | 4.00 15 13 New York Rangers = 4.20 11 10 4.00( 14) 2 5 | 4 7 | 4.09 16 | 4.32 10 14 Phoenix Coyotes = 4.17 12 10 3.96( 19) 3 2 | 6 6 | 4.18 14 | 4.16 13 15 Vancouver Canucks = 4.16 11 10 3.98( 16) 3 5 | 5 6 | 4.06 17 | 4.27 11 16 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.11 14 8 3.84( 29) 1 3 | 3 5 | 4.41 9 | 3.83 19 17 Nashville Predators = 4.09 11 9 4.17( 1) 4 5 | 5 5 | 4.35 12 | 3.83 18 18 Dallas Stars = 3.88 9 12 4.03( 12) 4 1 | 5 6 | 3.75 22 | 4.00 16 19 Ottawa Senators = 3.85 10 9 3.77( 30) 1 3 | 2 6 | 3.89 18 | 3.80 20 20 Florida Panthers = 3.78 8 11 4.11( 6) 3 6 | 3 8 | 3.78 20 | 3.77 21 NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 19 Thursday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.32 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 21 New York Islanders = 3.75 8 13 4.11( 7) 3 6 | 4 8 | 3.61 24 | 3.87 17 22 Edmonton Oilers = 3.74 9 13 4.15( 2) 3 7 | 5 10 | 3.79 19 | 3.68 22 23 Boston Bruins = 3.69 9 12 3.97( 18) 2 5 | 3 8 | 3.70 23 | 3.67 23 24 Montreal Canadiens = 3.61 10 11 3.90( 26) 2 5 | 4 7 | 3.76 21 | 3.43 26 25 Tampa Bay Lightning = 3.61 8 11 3.90( 25) 1 5 | 2 7 | 3.59 25 | 3.62 24 26 St. Louis Blues = 3.47 7 12 3.97( 17) 2 5 | 4 9 | 3.43 26 | 3.50 25 27 Anaheim Ducks = 3.35 7 13 3.96( 20) 1 3 | 3 9 | 3.37 27 | 3.34 27 28 Minnesota Wild = 3.21 7 14 3.93( 21) 1 3 | 3 8 | 3.19 28 | 3.22 28 29 Toronto Maple Leafs = 2.68 3 17 3.91( 24) 1 5 | 1 9 | 2.46 30 | 2.79 29 30 Carolina Hurricanes = 2.50 4 17 3.84( 28) 0 5 | 0 8 | 2.49 29 | 2.50 30 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
There are two group ratings, the "central mean" and the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean")
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is in a sense the continuous version of the discrete "tri-mean".
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
1 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 4.33 4.34 ( 1) 5
2 CENTRAL (west) = 4.16 4.14 ( 2) 5
3 PACIFIC (west) = 4.09 4.07 ( 3) 5
4 NORTHWEST (west) = 4.03 3.98 ( 4) 5
5 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 3.85 3.81 ( 5) 5
6 NORTHEAST (EAST) = 3.69 3.67 ( 6) 5
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS
1 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 4.33 4.34 ( 1) 5
6 NORTHEAST (EAST) = 3.69 3.67 ( 6) 5
5 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 3.85 3.81 ( 5) 5
2 CENTRAL (west) = 4.16 4.14 ( 2) 5
4 NORTHWEST (west) = 4.03 3.98 ( 4) 5
3 PACIFIC (west) = 4.09 4.07 ( 3) 5
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_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 4.33 4.34 ( 1) TEAMS= 5 NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 19 Thursday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.32 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 1 New Jersey Devils = 4.88 14 6 4.11( 8) 3 4 | 6 5 | 4.94 1 | 4.82 4 2 Philadelphia Flyers = 4.75 12 6 3.88( 27) 4 3 | 5 4 | 4.64 2 | 4.88 1 13 New York Rangers = 4.20 11 10 4.00( 14) 2 5 | 4 7 | 4.09 16 | 4.32 10 16 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.11 14 8 3.84( 29) 1 3 | 3 5 | 4.41 9 | 3.83 19 21 New York Islanders = 3.75 8 13 4.11( 7) 3 6 | 4 8 | 3.61 24 | 3.87 17 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 NORTHEAST (EAST) = 3.69 3.67 ( 6) TEAMS= 5 NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 19 Thursday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.32 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 6 Buffalo Sabres = 4.53 12 6 3.92( 23) 4 2 | 5 2 | 4.59 6 | 4.47 7 19 Ottawa Senators = 3.85 10 9 3.77( 30) 1 3 | 2 6 | 3.89 18 | 3.80 20 23 Boston Bruins = 3.69 9 12 3.97( 18) 2 5 | 3 8 | 3.70 23 | 3.67 23 24 Montreal Canadiens = 3.61 10 11 3.90( 26) 2 5 | 4 7 | 3.76 21 | 3.43 26 29 Toronto Maple Leafs = 2.68 3 17 3.91( 24) 1 5 | 1 9 | 2.46 30 | 2.79 29 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 SOUTHEAST (EAST) = 3.85 3.81 ( 5) TEAMS= 5 NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 19 Thursday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.32 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 3 Washington Capitals = 4.72 13 8 4.13( 4) 4 5 | 5 7 | 4.61 3 | 4.86 3 8 Atlanta Thrashers = 4.44 10 8 4.05( 10) 2 3 | 4 4 | 4.28 13 | 4.63 6 20 Florida Panthers = 3.78 8 11 4.11( 6) 3 6 | 3 8 | 3.78 20 | 3.77 21 25 Tampa Bay Lightning = 3.61 8 11 3.90( 25) 1 5 | 2 7 | 3.59 25 | 3.62 24 30 Carolina Hurricanes = 2.50 4 17 3.84( 28) 0 5 | 0 8 | 2.49 29 | 2.50 30 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 CENTRAL (west) = 4.16 4.14 ( 2) TEAMS= 5 NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 19 Thursday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.32 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 5 Chicago Blackhawks = 4.66 13 7 3.93( 22) 5 2 | 6 4 | 4.61 4 | 4.72 5 10 Detroit Red Wings = 4.26 10 9 4.04( 11) 4 3 | 8 4 | 4.16 15 | 4.36 9 12 Columbus Blue Jackets = 4.21 12 8 4.02( 13) 3 4 | 6 7 | 4.44 8 | 4.00 15 17 Nashville Predators = 4.09 11 9 4.17( 1) 4 5 | 5 5 | 4.35 12 | 3.83 18 26 St. Louis Blues = 3.47 7 12 3.97( 17) 2 5 | 4 9 | 3.43 26 | 3.50 25 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 NORTHWEST (west) = 4.03 3.98 ( 4) TEAMS= 5 NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 19 Thursday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.32 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 7 Colorado Avalanche = 4.45 13 9 4.10( 9) 6 3 | 8 5 | 4.45 7 | 4.46 8 9 Calgary Flames = 4.32 12 8 3.98( 15) 0 6 | 4 7 | 4.40 10 | 4.24 12 15 Vancouver Canucks = 4.16 11 10 3.98( 16) 3 5 | 5 6 | 4.06 17 | 4.27 11 22 Edmonton Oilers = 3.74 9 13 4.15( 2) 3 7 | 5 10 | 3.79 19 | 3.68 22 28 Minnesota Wild = 3.21 7 14 3.93( 21) 1 3 | 3 8 | 3.19 28 | 3.22 28 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 PACIFIC (west) = 4.09 4.07 ( 3) TEAMS= 5 NHL 2009-2010 through games of 2009 November 19 Thursday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.32 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 4 San Jose Sharks = 4.71 14 9 4.14( 3) 3 4 | 8 6 | 4.60 5 | 4.86 2 11 Los Angeles Kings = 4.22 13 10 4.12( 5) 1 5 | 5 9 | 4.36 11 | 4.09 14 14 Phoenix Coyotes = 4.17 12 10 3.96( 19) 3 2 | 6 6 | 4.18 14 | 4.16 13 18 Dallas Stars = 3.88 9 12 4.03( 12) 4 1 | 5 6 | 3.75 22 | 4.00 16 27 Anaheim Ducks = 3.35 7 13 3.96( 20) 1 3 | 3 9 | 3.37 27 | 3.34 27 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________endfile