United States Naval Observatory
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2010 Major League Soccer ratings through results of AUGUST 29 SUNDAY
this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
(2) DIVISION AVERAGES
(listed top-to-bottom)
(3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
(listed top-to-bottom within divisions)
The SCHEDULE ratings represent the average schedule difficulty faced
by each team in the games that it's played so far. The schedule
difficulty of a given game takes into account the rating of the
opponent and the location of the game.
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
favored by 1.08 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35
NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 4 and top 8 respectively.
For the first few weeks of the season, the starting ratings have weight
in the process(BAYESIAN), but once the teams are all CONNECTED, then
the starting ratings are no longer used and all teams are started equal
and the ratings are then done in an UNBIASED manner from that point on.
The teams are now CONNECTED and the ratings are UNBIASED.
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In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR
of future games.
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The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Major League Soccer 2010 through games of August 29 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.47 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 4 | VS top 8 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 1 Los Angeles Galaxy = 2.65 13 5 4 2.00( 8) 3 1 0 | 7 2 1 | 2.66 1 | 2.64 2 2 Real Salt Lake = 2.57 11 4 7 1.92( 16) 2 3 0 | 3 3 2 | 2.50 4 | 2.64 1 3 FC Dallas = 2.51 9 2 10 1.94( 14) 1 1 2 | 2 2 5 | 2.53 3 | 2.49 3 4 Columbus Crew = 2.49 12 5 5 1.97( 11) 1 2 2 | 4 3 4 | 2.54 2 | 2.44 4 5 New York Red Bulls = 2.20 11 7 4 1.93( 15) 1 3 0 | 3 5 1 | 2.25 5 | 2.15 6 6 Colorado Rapids = 2.17 8 6 7 1.99( 10) 1 2 1 | 3 4 2 | 2.15 7 | 2.18 5 7 San Jose Earthquakes = 2.13 8 7 5 2.07( 3) 1 2 3 | 4 5 3 | 2.16 6 | 2.11 7 8 Seattle Sounders FC = 2.04 9 8 5 1.97( 13) 0 2 4 | 3 5 4 | 2.06 8 | 2.02 8 9 Chicago Fire = 1.95 6 7 6 2.00( 7) 1 2 1 | 1 5 4 | 1.90 10 | 1.99 9 10 Toronto FC = 1.91 7 8 6 2.00( 9) 0 2 4 | 3 5 4 | 1.91 9 | 1.91 10 Major League Soccer 2010 through games of August 29 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.47 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 4 | VS top 8 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 11 Kansas City Wizards = 1.88 7 9 5 2.03( 6) 2 3 2 | 3 6 3 | 1.86 11 | 1.91 11 12 Chivas USA = 1.73 6 11 4 2.07( 4) 1 5 1 | 3 7 2 | 1.64 13 | 1.80 12 13 Houston Dynamo = 1.71 6 11 5 2.12( 1) 1 5 2 | 1 8 4 | 1.70 12 | 1.71 13 14 Philadelphia Union = 1.53 5 11 5 2.08( 2) 0 4 2 | 1 7 3 | 1.56 14 | 1.50 14 15 New England Revolution = 1.44 6 12 3 1.97( 12) 1 3 1 | 2 6 2 | 1.44 15 | 1.44 15 16 D.C. United = 1.09 4 15 3 2.04( 5) 0 5 1 | 1 8 3 | 1.12 16 | 1.06 16 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 WEST = 2.19 2.19 ( 1) 8 2.19 ( 1)
2 EAST = 1.82 1.81 ( 2) 8 1.81 ( 2)
CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
2 EAST = 1.82 1.81 ( 2) 8 1.81 ( 2)
1 WEST = 2.19 2.19 ( 1) 8 2.19 ( 1)
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_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 EAST = 1.82 1.81 ( 2) TEAMS= 8 1.81 ( 2) Major League Soccer 2010 through games of August 29 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.47 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 4 | VS top 8 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 4 Columbus Crew = 2.49 12 5 5 1.97( 11) 1 2 2 | 4 3 4 | 2.54 2 | 2.44 4 5 New York Red Bulls = 2.20 11 7 4 1.93( 15) 1 3 0 | 3 5 1 | 2.25 5 | 2.15 6 9 Chicago Fire = 1.95 6 7 6 2.00( 7) 1 2 1 | 1 5 4 | 1.90 10 | 1.99 9 10 Toronto FC = 1.91 7 8 6 2.00( 9) 0 2 4 | 3 5 4 | 1.91 9 | 1.91 10 11 Kansas City Wizards = 1.88 7 9 5 2.03( 6) 2 3 2 | 3 6 3 | 1.86 11 | 1.91 11 14 Philadelphia Union = 1.53 5 11 5 2.08( 2) 0 4 2 | 1 7 3 | 1.56 14 | 1.50 14 15 New England Revolution = 1.44 6 12 3 1.97( 12) 1 3 1 | 2 6 2 | 1.44 15 | 1.44 15 16 D.C. United = 1.09 4 15 3 2.04( 5) 0 5 1 | 1 8 3 | 1.12 16 | 1.06 16 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 WEST = 2.19 2.19 ( 1) TEAMS= 8 2.19 ( 1) Major League Soccer 2010 through games of August 29 Sunday HOME ADVANTAGE= 0.47 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 4 | VS top 8 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 1 Los Angeles Galaxy = 2.65 13 5 4 2.00( 8) 3 1 0 | 7 2 1 | 2.66 1 | 2.64 2 2 Real Salt Lake = 2.57 11 4 7 1.92( 16) 2 3 0 | 3 3 2 | 2.50 4 | 2.64 1 3 FC Dallas = 2.51 9 2 10 1.94( 14) 1 1 2 | 2 2 5 | 2.53 3 | 2.49 3 6 Colorado Rapids = 2.17 8 6 7 1.99( 10) 1 2 1 | 3 4 2 | 2.15 7 | 2.18 5 7 San Jose Earthquakes = 2.13 8 7 5 2.07( 3) 1 2 3 | 4 5 3 | 2.16 6 | 2.11 7 8 Seattle Sounders FC = 2.04 9 8 5 1.97( 13) 0 2 4 | 3 5 4 | 2.06 8 | 2.02 8 12 Chivas USA = 1.73 6 11 4 2.07( 4) 1 5 1 | 3 7 2 | 1.64 13 | 1.80 12 13 Houston Dynamo = 1.71 6 11 5 2.12( 1) 1 5 2 | 1 8 4 | 1.70 12 | 1.71 13 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________endfile